Modeling and Simulating Terrorist Networks in Social and Geospatial Dimensions

Abstract

A simple theoretical multiagent model reasons about the criticality of terrorists and regions as terrorist interactions coevolve in geographical and social spaces. Social and spatial relations evolve over time. Estimating their evolutions is important for management, command and control structures, and intelligence analysis research. By knowing future agent social and spatial distributions, an analyst can identify emergent leaders, hot spots, and organizational vulnerabilities. Historically, such estimations have depended heavily on qualitative data analyses by subject-matter experts. A few researchers approached the issue using multiagent models and simulation. The models addressed the complex nature of the organization and task assignments, resource distributions, or agent locations. The simulations addressed the near-term organizational changes. This research came from two perspectives: the effects of change in the social network and the effects of geospatial change. Both perspectives can project aspects of emerging organizational structure and future performance, but they can't examine the interaction between physical and social movements.