„Last Man Standing“: Zur Bedeutung der Kanzlerkandidaten für das Ergebnis der Bun- destagswahl 2021

Abstract

The 2021 federal election was special in several respects with regard to the role of the can- didates for chancellor . For the first time, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen entered the competition with their own candidate, resulting in a three-way race for chancellorship . In addition, for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, the previous incumbent did not stand for re-election . Based on polling data it becomes evident that in the wake of Annalena Baerbock’s and Armin Laschet’s misconduct and scandals during the election cam- paign, both their popularity ratings and the vote shares of their respective parties declined significantly . It was only as a result of these failures involving his two competitors that Olaf Scholz - as the “Last Man Standing” - became the Germans’ preferred chancellor . Our analyses also suggest that the CDU/CSU would have done significantly better with Markus Söder as candidate for chancellor and would probably have won the federal election . Regarding the first-time nomination of a chancellor candidate by Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, we find that a preference for Annalena Baerbock had a significant and substantial effect on the green vote .