Predicting spatio-temporal man-made slope failures induced by rainfall in Hong Kong using machine learning techniques

Abstract

Rain-induced man-made slope failures pose great threats to public safety as most man-made slopes are formed in densely populated areas. A critical step in managing landslide risks is to predict the time, locations and consequences of slope failures in future rainstorms. Based on comprehensive databases of in-service man-made slopes, rainstorms and landslides in Hong Kong during the past 35 years, a spatio-temporal landslide forecasting model for man-made slopes is developed in this study within a unified machine learning framework. With a storm-based data integration strategy and multiclass classification on landslide scales, the framework incorporates landslide time and consequences in landslide susceptibility mapping to successfully achieve spatio-temporal landslide forecasting. The machine learning-based landslide forecasting model is validated against historical landslide incidents both temporally and spatially and through a case study of the June 2008 storm; the model significantly outperforms the prevailing statistical rainfall–landslide correlations in terms of prediction accuracy. The model can predict the real-time evolution of probabilities, scales and spatial distribution of landslides during the progression of a rainstorm, which can never be achieved by statistical methods. It can serve as an essential module for state-of-the-art landslide risk assessment and early warning.