Assessing the Probability of Drought Severity in a Homogeneous Region

Abstract

The standardized precipitation index (SPI) is one of the most widely used indices for characterizing and monitoring drought in various regions. SPI's applicability has regional and time‐scale constraints when it observes in several homogeneous climatic regions with similar characteristics. It also does not provide sufficient knowledge about precipitation deficits and the spatiotemporal evolution of drought. Therefore, a new method, the regional spatially agglomerative continuous drought probability monitoring system (RSACDPMS), is proposed to obtain spatiotemporal information and monitor drought characteristics more expeditiously. The proposed framework uses spatially agglomerative precipitation (SAP) and copulas’ functions to continuously monitor the drought probability in the homogenous region. The RSACDPMS is validated in the region of the Northern area of Pakistan. The outcomes of the current study provide a better quantitative way to obtain appropriate information about precipitation deficits and the spatiotemporal evolution of drought.