Megafires in a Warming World: What Wildfire Risk Factors Led to California’s Largest Recorded Wildfire

Abstract

Massive wildfires and extreme fire behavior are becoming more frequent across the western United States, creating a need to better understand how megafire behavior will evolve in our warming world. Here, the fire spread model Prometheus is used to simulate the initial explosive growth of the 2020 August Complex, which occurred in northern California (CA) mixed conifer forests. High temperatures, low relative humidity, and daytime southerly winds were all highly correlated with extreme rates of modeled spread. Fine fuels reached very dry levels, which accelerated simulation growth and heightened fire heat release (HR). Model sensitivity tests indicate that fire growth and HR are most sensitive to aridity and fuel moisture content. Despite the impressive early observed growth of the fire, shifting the simulation ignition to a very dry September 2020 heatwave predicted a >50% increase in growth and HR, as well as increased nighttime fire activity. Detailed model analyses of how extreme fire behavior develops can help fire personnel prepare for problematic ignitions.