Comparative Effectiveness of Coronavirus Vaccine in Preventing Breakthrough Infections among Vaccinated Persons Infected with Delta and Alpha Variants

Abstract

We developed a case-case study to compare mRNA vaccine effectiveness against Delta versus Alpha coronavirus variants. We used data on 2,097 case-patients with PCR-positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections reported in Portugal during May-July 2021. We estimated the odds of vaccine breakthrough infection in Delta-infected versus Alpha-infected patients by using conditional logistic regression adjusted for age group and sex and matched by the week of diagnosis. We compared reverse-transcription PCR cycle threshold values by vaccination status and variant as an indirect measure of viral load. We found significantly higher odds of vaccine breakthrough infection in Delta-infected patients than in Alpha-infected patients (odds ratio 1.96 [95% CI 1.22-3.14]), suggesting lower effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines in preventing infection with the Delta variant. We estimated lower mean cycle threshold values for the Delta cases (mean difference -2.10 [95% CI -2.74 to -1.47]), suggesting higher infectiousness than the Alpha variant.