Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Wheat in Contrasting Climatic Regions of Iran

Abstract

This is the first large-scale study to assess the climate change impact on the grain yield of rainfed wheat for three provinces of contrasting climatic conditions (temperate, cold semi-arid, and hot arid) in Iran. Five integrative climate change scenarios including +0.5°C temperature plus−5% precipitation, +1°C plus−10%, +1.5°C plus−15%, +2°C plus−20%, and +2.5°C plus−25% were used and evaluated. Nitrogen fertilizer and shifting planting dates were tested for their suitability as adaptive strategies for rainfed wheat against the changing climate. The climate change scenarios reduced the grain yield by −6.9 to −44.8% in the temperate province Mazandaran and by −7.3 to −54.4% in the hot arid province Khuzestan but increased it by +16.7% in the cold semi-arid province Eastern Azarbaijan. The additional application of +15, +30, +45, and +60 kg ha −1 nitrogen fertilizer as urea at sowing could not, in most cases, compensate for the grain yield reductions under the climate change scenarios. Instead, late planting dates in November, December, and January enhanced the grain yield by +6 to +70.6% in Mazandaran under all climate change scenarios and by +94 to +271% in Khuzestan under all climate change scenarios except under the scenario +2.5°C temperature plus−25% precipitation which led to a grain yield reduction of −85.5%. It is concluded that rainfed wheat production in regions with cold climates can benefit from the climate change, but it can be impaired in temperate regions and especially in vulnerable hot regions like Khuzestan. Shifting planting date can be regarded as an efficient yield-compensating and environmentally friendly adaptive strategy of rainfed wheat against the climate change in temperate and hot arid regions.