Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction scenarios and response plans

Abstract

NEPEC concluded that any realistic attempts at short-term prediction in the near future in the United States are likely to be of a probabilistic nature and would not be warnings in which there was certainty or near certainty that a physical observation would be followed shortly by a major earthquake. NEPEC also concluded that under some scenarios there could be an abrupt increase in the probability of the earthquake within a few hours, or less, and response to such situations would need to be planned well ahead of time and delegation of authority worked out.