A Dynamic Network Approach to the Assessment of Terrorist Groups and the Impact of Alternative Courses of Action

Abstract

Dynamic network analysis (DNA) is an emergent field centered on the collection, analysis, understanding and prediction of dynamic relations among various entities such as actors, events and resources and the impact of such dynamics on individual and group behaviour. DNA facilitates reasoning about terrorist groups as complex dynamic networked systems that evolve over time. An interoperable DNA toolchain for collecting data on, assessing the network of, and forecasting changes in that network is presented. The use of these DNA tools to asses a terrorist group is then demonstrated using open source data. Key techniques are demonstrated using a dataset collected on terror networks. Techniques demonstrated include those for identification of an actor's sphere of influence, emergent leaders, and paths among critical actors, and metrics for assessing the potential immediate and near term impact of various courses of action.