XGBoost Classifier Based on Computed Tomography Radiomics for Prediction of Tumor-Infiltrating CD8+ T-Cells in Patients With Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Abstract

Objectives This study constructed and validated a machine learning model to predict CD8 + tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte expression levels in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) using computed tomography (CT) radiomic features. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, 184 PDAC patients were randomly assigned to a training dataset (n =137) and validation dataset (n =47). All patients were divided into CD8 + T-high and -low groups using X-tile plots. A total of 1409 radiomics features were extracted from the segmentation of regions of interest, based on preoperative CT images of each patient. The LASSO algorithm was applied to reduce the dimensionality of the data and select features. The extreme gradient boosting classifier (XGBoost) was developed using a training set consisting of 137 consecutive patients admitted between January 2017 and December 2017. The model was validated in 47 consecutive patients admitted between January 2018 and April 2018. The performance of the XGBoost classifier was determined by its discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical usefulness. Results The cut-off value of the CD8 + T-cell level was 18.69%, as determined by the X-tile program. A Kaplan−Meier analysis indicated a correlation between higher CD8 + T-cell levels and better overall survival ( p = 0.001). The XGBoost classifier showed good discrimination in the training set (area under curve [AUC], 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67–0.83) and validation set (AUC, 0.67; 95% CI: 0.51–0.83). Moreover, it showed a good calibration. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values were 80.65%, 60.00%, 0.69, 0.63, and 0.79, respectively, for the training set, and 80.95%, 57.69%, 0.68, 0.61, and 0.79, respectively, for the validation set. Conclusions We developed a CT-based XGBoost classifier to extrapolate the infiltration levels of CD8 + T-cells in patients with PDAC. This method could be useful in identifying potential patients who can benefit from immunotherapies.