Simulation-based multi-criteria decision making: an interactive method with a case study on infectious disease epidemics

Abstract

Whenever a system needs to be operated by a central decision making authority in the presence of two or more conflicting goals, methods from multi-criteria decision making can help to resolve the trade-offs between these goals. In this work, we devise an interactive simulation-based methodology for planning and deciding in complex dynamic systems subject to multiple objectives and parameter uncertainty. The outline intermittently employs simulation models and global sensitivity analysis methods in order to facilitate the acquisition of system-related knowledge throughout the iterations. Moreover, the decision maker participates in the decision making process by interactively adjusting control variables and system parameters according to a guiding analysis question posed for each iteration. As a result, the overall decision making process is backed up by sensitivity analysis results providing increased confidence in terms of reliability of considered decision alternatives. Using the efficiency concept of Pareto optimality and the sensitivity analysis method of Sobol' sensitivity indices, the methodology is then instantiated in a case study on planning and deciding in an infectious disease epidemic situation similar to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. Results show that the presented simulation-based methodology is capable of successfully addressing issues such as system dynamics, parameter uncertainty, and multi-criteria decision making. Hence, it represents a viable tool for supporting decision makers in situations characterized by time dynamics, uncertainty, and multiple objectives.