Hybrid Wavelet Stacking Ensemble Model for Insulators Contamination Forecasting

Abstract

Contaminated insulators can have higher surface conductivity, which can result in irreversible failures in the electrical power system. In this paper, the ultrasound equipment is used to assist in the prediction of failure identification in porcelain insulators of the 13.8 kV, 60 Hz pin profile. To perform the laboratory analysis, insulators from a problematic branch are removed after an inspection of the electrical system and are evaluated in the laboratory under controlled conditions. To perform the time series predictions, the stacking ensemble learning model is applied with the wavelet transform for signal filtering and noise reduction. For a complete analysis of the model, variations in its configuration were evaluated. The results of root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> ) are presented. To validate the result, a benchmarking is presented with well-established models, such as an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and long-term short-term memory (LSTM).