White knights, or horsemen of the apocalypse? Prospects for Big Oil to align emissions with a 1.5 °C pathway

Abstract

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must decrease rapidly in order to keep temperatures from exceeding 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. It is unclear if the oil and gas majors will contribute towards this goal by decarbonising at the speed and scale required. Therefore, this study focuses on BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Royal Dutch Shell, the top four investor-owned companies by size of direct and indirect historical GHG emissions. Scientists at these companies knew that their products contributed to global warming by the late 1970s or earlier. For decades these companies have used a variety of tactics to slow down and shape the low-carbon transition alongside continued exploration and extraction. Discussion about the potential for these companies to meet self-imposed GHG emissions reduction targets and shift towards low-carbon technologies have been a distraction from the central question of whether they will phase out exploration for, and extraction of, oil and gas. Despite the growing disruption of the oil and gas sector, accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic, we conclude it is unlikely that the executives and directors at these four companies will decide to proactively decarbonise in line with climate science. This raises the need for further external pressure, in particular by governments, as policy makers have played a key role in previous energy transitions.