Anticipating the impact of COVID-19 on Internal Migration

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to impact migration within Australia due to the closure of state and territory borders and the COVID-19 induced economic recession. A lack of research in Australia on historical responses of internal migration to economic cycles, coupled with a lack of contemporaneous data on internal migration, makes it difficult to know the extent of the impacts on the level and patterns of migration within Australia. In this context, this paper sets assumptions for migration between and within states for use in sub-national population projections. The analysis informing these assumptions combines a descriptive analysis with time-series modelling to identify factors that drive short and long-term variations in the level of internal migration.