Effect of zoning plans on urban land-use change: A multi-scenario simulation for supporting sustainable urban growth

TLDR

Urban land‑use change simulations are useful but often lack integration with planning, yet the growing availability of digital zoning data presents new opportunities. The study seeks to assess how statutory zoning can promote sustainable urban development by embedding regulations into a multi‑scenario simulation. The authors used the CLUmondo framework, combining cellular automata with multivariate logistic regression, to simulate Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, and Zaragoza from 2012 to 2030 under four scenarios that vary in planning intervention and align with Spanish legislation and Agenda 2030 goals, with zoning‑defined gross floor area guiding parcel‑level density allocation. The simulations indicate that redirecting growth to zones with urbanization projects could spare approximately 4,200 ha of grassland and cropland, while targeting zones without such projects could save about 3,800 ha, offering planners concrete data to guide sustainable development.

Abstract

Even though urban land-use change simulations provide useful information for decision makers, planning is generally weakly integrated into land-change modelling. However, the increasingly digitally available zoning data from statutory planning offers new opportunities. This study aims to reveal the potential effectiveness of statutory planning in terms of sustainable urban development by integrating zoning regulations in a multi-scenario simulation. Specifically, the gross floor area that can be built per parcel, as defined in the zoning plan, supports the allocation of varying degrees of urban densities. Using the CLUmondo modelling framework that couples cellular automata and multivariate logistic regression, we simulated urban growth in Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, and Zaragoza Spanish Functional Urban Areas from 2012 to 2030 in four scenarios. The scenarios reflect the degree of planning intervention, ranging from high intervention to unrestricted development, while consider Spanish legislation and urban agenda 2030 sustainability goals. Simulations shows that by shifting growth to zones with urbanization projects almost 4200 ha of grassland and cropland could be saved from overbuilding, and 3800 ha by shifting it to zones without urbanization project. The simulation results provide critical information to support decision-makers and planners in revising plans and designing new plans to achieve sustainable urban development.