Effect of plantation of genetically modified trees on the control of atmospheric carbon dioxide: A modeling study

Abstract

Abstract The increase in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) gas concentration in the atmosphere is primarily responsible for the threat of global warming. Forest is one of the prime sinks of CO 2 . The reduction in the global forest cover due to human activities has contributed significantly to the increase in CO 2 levels. Reforestation and afforestation are avenues to control the atmospheric CO 2 level; however, several demographic, ecological, and economic constraints exist in the large‐scale plantations. In this scenario, the plantation of genetically modified trees, which absorb more CO 2 from the atmosphere, may aid in attaining the CO 2 mitigation target. In this study, a mathematical model is proposed to investigate the effect of the plantation of genetically modified trees on the control of the atmospheric CO 2 level. A comprehensive qualitative analysis of the model is carried out. The model is calibrated to fit the actual data of global CO 2 concentration, population, and forest area. Numerical simulations are carried out to show the effect of key parameters on the dynamics of forest cover and atmospheric CO 2 gas. The optimal strategies for the reduction in CO 2 concentration while minimizing the implementation cost of plantation programs are also investigated by proposing the optimal control problem. Recommendations for Resource Managers The enhanced concentration of is primarily responsible for anthropogenic global warming. Declination in global forest cover is contributing to the increase in the concentration. Plantation of trees is an avenue to combat global warming by reducing the atmospheric level. However, plantation activities are constrained by land availability and other constraints. In this scenario, the use of genetically modified trees may aid in achieving mitigation targets. Forest plantation using genetically modified trees brings more reduction in concentration in comparison to when planted trees are not genetically modified. The forest management policies should focus on the development and plantation of genetically modified trees having more sequestration capacity, so that the carbon stock per unit forest area can be increased. Such policies are also found to be helpful in attaining the target reduction in concentration under economic constraints.