China’s spatial fix and ‘debt diplomacy’ in Africa: constraining belt or road to economic transformation?

TLDR

China’s overaccumulated capital has driven the Belt and Road Initiative, a network of infrastructure projects across Eurasia and Africa, to address chronic surplus, but rising debt concerns amid COVID‑19 have heightened scrutiny of its sustainability. The article traces the drivers of the BRI in China’s post‑reform economy and conceptualises it as a spatial fix aimed at resolving overaccumulation. By examining loan financing for BRI projects in Kenya, Djibouti and Ethiopia, the paper shows how spatial fixes create contradictions in Africa. The study concludes that hopes for Africa’s economic transformation through BRI‑driven connectivity are unlikely to materialise.

Abstract

Mounting overaccumulation of capital and material has compelled the Chinese government to seek solutions overseas. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with its transregional infrastructure projects connecting Eurasia and Africa, is the hallmark venture in this effort. Chinese road, railway, port and energy projects, implemented under the BRI banner, have become widespread in Africa. This article traces drivers of the BRI in the post-reform evolution of the Chinese economy and conceptualises the BRI as a multi-vector “spatial fix” aimed at addressing chronic overaccumulation. Focusing on Kenya, Djibouti and Ethiopia, the paper documents how loan financing related to BRI projects reveals contradictions that arise from China’s spatial fix in Africa. Concerns about a looming debt crisis on the continent and the questionable economic sustainability of some BRI projects have become more pressing amidst the COVID-19-induced economic contraction. Hopes for Africa’s economic transformation based on increasing connectivity under the BRI are unlikely to materialise.