Model-based forecasting for Canadian COVID-19 data

Abstract

The examinations of the data dated from March 18, 2020 to August 11, 2020 show that the STAR, NN, and SIR models may output different results, though the differences are small in some cases. Prediction over a short term period incurs smaller prediction variability than over a long term period, as expected. The NN method tends to outperform other two methods. All the methods forecast an upward trend in all the four Canadian provinces for the period of August 12, 2020 to August 23, 2020, though the degree varies from method to method. This research offers model-based insights into the pandemic evolvement in Canada.