Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil

TLDR

The study estimates how exposure to Brazilian soap operas, which depict small families, affects fertility. The authors use staggered market entry of Globo, the dominant novela producer, to identify the causal impact. Women in Globo‑covered regions exhibit lower fertility, especially among lower‑socioeconomic groups and during central/late reproductive stages, indicating stopping behavior; the effect is not due to selection and is corroborated by children’s naming patterns and novela content. JEL codes: J13, J16, L82, O15, Z13.

Abstract

We estimate the effect of television on fertility in Brazil, where soap operas portray small families. We exploit differences in the timing of entry into different markets of Globo, the main novela producer. Women living in areas covered by Globo have significantly lower fertility. The effect is strongest for women of lower socioeconomic status and in the central and late phases of fertility, consistent with stopping behavior. The result does not appear to be driven by selection in Globo entry. We provide evidence that novelas, and not just television, affected individual choices, based on children's naming patterns and novela content. (JEL J13, J16, L82, O15, Z13)