Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity: Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections

TLDR

The study examines how U.S. gubernatorial elections affect IPO activity. The authors use a neighboring‑states design, comparing states with elections to adjacent states without elections, to identify the effect on IPOs.

Abstract

We analyze initial public offering (IPO) activity under political uncertainty surrounding gubernatorial elections in the United States. There are fewer IPOs originating from a state when it is scheduled to have an election. To establish identification, we develop a neighboring-states method that uses bordering states without elections as a control group. The dampening effect of elections on IPO activity is stronger for firms with more concentrated businesses in their home states, firms that are more dependent on government contracts (particularly state contracts), and harder-to-value firms. This dampening effect is related to lower IPO offer prices (hence, higher costs of capital) during election years.