IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE INDIAN ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM FOOD GRAIN YIELDS

Abstract

We analyse the effects of rainfall and temperature on yields of paddy and millets (pearl millet and sorghum) in India for the period 1966–1999, at the district level. Unlike other studies, we control for fertiliser use and irrigation. We find that paddy (India's leading food crop) is sensitive to the climate variables but also to fertiliser use and irrigation. Millets are less affected by climate variables although sorghum shows some sensitivity to temperature. Our results have important implications for how India's agriculture will adapt to climate change.