Establishment of an indicator concept for the German strategy on adaptation to climate change

Abstract

Even if we succeed in achieving the EU target of reducing global warming to 2 C, it will be absolutely essential to adapt to changing climatic conditions. The greenhouse gases currently present in the atmosphere will influence the climate in coming decades. The day on which it is quite clear which climatic scenario prevails, so that it is possible to model all relevant processes down to regional level, will be the day on which it is too late to adapt to the actual scenario. Our endeavours to adapt to climate change do not mean, however, that we can neglect to take measures in order to reduce the output of greenhouse gases. It is important to remember that on their own, neither adaptation nor mitigation can prevent the grave impacts resulting from climate change. In fact, they complement each other meaningfully thus helping to alleviate the risks of climate change. On 17th December 2008 the German Federal Cabinet adopted the DAS (German Strategy for the Adaptation to Climate Change), (Bundesregierung 2008). The DAS has created the framework for adapting to the consequences of climate change in Germany. First and fore-most, the DAS contributes its guidelines at Federal level, to provide a guideline for agents at other levels. The Strategy lays the foundation for a medium-term process. In conjunction with the individual Federal States and other groups representing various sectors of society, the Strategy provides a step-by-step assessment of the risks of climate change. Furthermore, it states the potential requirements for action, and defines the appropriate goals and potential adaptation measures to be developed and implemented in this process. In due course, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) will design a comprehensive set of tools to support and advance the DAS. An integral part of this will be the Special Information System 'Adaptation' (FISKA) and an Indicator System to aid adaptation. The latter is one of the key tasks identified for the DAS. As far as the Indicator System is concerned, it has been decided to prepare a Report on Indicators for the success of adaptation measures and the challenges facing Germany. Proposals regarding indicators for monitoring the success of the adaptation strategy and a proposal for a suitable illustration in the shape of an indicator-based report for adaptation at Federal level are to be presented in spring 2011, in conjunc-tion with the publication of the Action Plan 'Adaptation at Federal Level'. This may be added to the Action Plan either as an enclosure or as a supplementary document. Furthermore it is planned to incorporate the preparation of a Report on Indicators and the underlying Indicator Set as a Measure under the Action Plan. This is to be achieved by 2013. Subsequently, regular reviews of progress made in adapting to the consequences of climate change could be carried out by means of progress reports. The DAS Indicator System and the Adaptation Report will be developed in a multi-stage process on behalf of the BMU. This process will be under the aegis of UBA / KomPass. The Consultation Project entitled 'Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy' discussed in this document, was initiated in December 2008 and completed in March 2010. It resulted in an initial set of indicators for adaptation at Federal level and a structure for the Report on Indicators. This set of indicators will be consolidated in a R and E project that is scheduled to run (with a time lag) from the beginning of 2010 until the beginning of 2011. One of the objectives of this R and D project is to produce a Report on Indicators. The Consultation Project was initially based on a sectoral and very pragmatic approach thus reflecting the basic structural approach of the DAS. The statements contained in the DAS refer essentially to the Action Fields and to two additional Cross-sectional Fields. The Con-sultation Project dealt with all Action Fields and Cross-sectional Fields. These are: - human health, - building sector, - water regime, water management, coastal and marine protection - soil, - biodiversity, - agriculture, - woodland and forestry, - fishery, - energy industry (change, transport and utilities), - finance management, - transport, transport infrastructure, - trade and industry, - tourism industry, - the Cross-sectional Fields of spatial, regional and physical development planning as well as population protection. The intention is, in due course, to pursue a more integrated approach to the adaptation proc-ess, for example by prioritising adaptation measures at Federal level across a number of Action Fields. As far as the future development of indicators is concerned, it is therefore in-tended to consider also those indicators which offer the potential of achieving political pro-gress in adapting to climate change for the whole of Germany. In this context, one of the most important questions will be whether the Federal Government is creating the appropriate regulatory framework to support adaptation. The broad range of areas affected by climatic impacts and the requirement to apply and agree adaptation measures as far as possible encompassing all sectors, makes it necessary to involve all government departments in the development of the Indicator System. Despite the Environment Department's leading role in directing the overall process, it relies on the active cooperation of and acceptance by all other government departments throughout the entire process - from selecting the indicators to preparing the report. The UBA's Consultation Project FG I.2.1 'Climate Protection' paved the way for a successive incorporation of gov-ernment departments for implementation by the principal in the course of numerous bilateral discussions and mini group meetings. Until the reporting process for the Consultation Project began in early March 2010, the liaison work with various individual government departments had reached various degrees of intensity. (orig.)