Deep learning prediction of BRAF-RAS gene expression signature identifies noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasms with papillary-like nuclear features

Abstract

Noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasms with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) are follicular-patterned thyroid neoplasms defined by nuclear atypia and indolent behavior. They harbor RAS mutations, rather than BRAF^V600E mutations as is observed in papillary thyroid carcinomas with extensive follicular growth. Reliably identifying NIFTPs aids in safe therapy de-escalation, but has proven to be challenging due to interobserver variability and morphologic heterogeneity. The genomic scoring system BRS (BRAF-RAS score) was developed to quantify the extent to which a tumor's expression profile resembles a BRAF^V600E or RAS-mutant neoplasm. We proposed that deep learning prediction of BRS could differentiate NIFTP from other follicular-patterned neoplasms. A deep learning model was trained on slides from a dataset of 115 thyroid neoplasms to predict tumor subtype (NIFTP, PTC-EFG, or classic PTC), and was used to generate predictions for 497 thyroid neoplasms within The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Within follicular-patterned neoplasms, tumors with positive BRS (RAS-like) were 8.5 times as likely to carry an NIFTP prediction than tumors with negative BRS (89.7% vs 10.5%, P < 0.0001). To test the hypothesis that BRS may serve as a surrogate for biological processes that determine tumor subtype, a separate model was trained on TCGA slides to predict BRS as a linear outcome. This model performed well in cross-validation on the training set (R² = 0.67, dichotomized AUC = 0.94). In our internal cohort, NIFTPs were near universally predicted to have RAS-like BRS; as a sole discriminator of NIFTP status, predicted BRS performed with an AUC of 0.99 globally and 0.97 when restricted to follicular-patterned neoplasms. BRAF^V600E-mutant PTC-EFG had BRAF^V600E-like predicted BRS (mean -0.49), nonmutant PTC-EFG had more intermediate predicted BRS (mean -0.17), and NIFTP had RAS-like BRS (mean 0.35; P < 0.0001). In summary, histologic features associated with the BRAF-RAS gene expression spectrum are detectable by deep learning and can aid in distinguishing indolent NIFTP from PTCs.