The Mathematical Modeling Stages of Combining the Carriage of Goods for Indefinite, Fuzzy and Stochastic Parameters

Abstract

Combined cargo transportation in Ukraine is characterized by the presence of uncertain risks. The aim of the article was to propose a mathematical model for choosing the mode of transportation that would correspond to the best value of the integral objective function in the presence of fuzzy, stochastic and uncertain risk parameters. The efficiency of the mathematical model provided the possibility of forming not only long-term forecasts that require significant time, but also short-term forecasts in real time. This allows to quickly change routes and conditions of transportation. Practical testing of the mathematical model revealed the assimilating nature of some uncertain risks. The results of the analysis are given in the article. The realization of such a risk leads to a radical change in all conditions of transportation. Long-term forecasts allow to predict new routes and conditions of transportation.