Inequality and voting in Italy’s regions

Abstract

In the last 20 years Italy has experienced major political upheavals, which have been explained by a variety of political and social processes. This paper analyses the role played by economic conditions in a period of stagnation and widespread impoverishment. The evolution of voting in Italy’s general elections from 1994 to 2018 is investigated at the regional level, exploring the role of inequality, changes in incomes, wealth levels and the precarization of jobs and unemployment. Using a novel regional database combining voting results, incomes of employees, and household revenues and wealth, we explore the drivers of non-voting, and of the shares of votes for mainstream parties, the Lega, and the Five Star Movement in the total number of electors. The results of our econometric models show that inequality, lack of wealth and precarization are closely associated with the regional patterns of Italy’s electoral change. While political, ideological and cultural variables are important factors in Italy’s political upheavals, we find that a key played has been played by inequality and economic conditions.