Earthquake prediction from high frequency groundwater level data: A case study from Gujarat, India

Abstract

Earthquake prediction has been a challenging but an unsuccessful task until now and has not provided reliable forecasting mechanism. Developments of prediction tools are limited and there is huge gap between the known post-shock data and unknown pre shock data. In the present case, an attempt is being made to develop a breakthrough for predicting earthquakes through its response on groundwater level in the Bhuj/Kachchh region, Gujarat, India. High frequency groundwater level data from 5 monitoring stations recorded the pre, co-seismic and post seismic events of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake. Pre-seismic signatures in form of sharp decline 85 days and in another station 21 days prior to the earthquake event. Although the observations are based on limited data, but if the density of the monitoring wells are increased in the seismic/active fault zones, the groundwater level have the potential to reflect the tectonically accumulated stresses and help in understanding the earthquake mechanism.