Prediction of post-radiotherapy locoregional progression in HPV-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma using machine-learning analysis of baseline PET/CT radiomics

Abstract

Locoregional failure remains a therapeutic challenge in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). We aimed to devise novel objective imaging biomarkers for prediction of locoregional progression in HPV-associated OPSCC. Following manual lesion delineation, 1037 PET and 1037 CT radiomic features were extracted from each primary tumor and metastatic cervical lymph node on baseline PET/CT scans. Applying random forest machine-learning algorithms, we generated radiomic models for censoring-aware locoregional progression prognostication (evaluated by Harrell's C-index) and risk stratification (evaluated in Kaplan-Meier analysis). A total of 190 patients were included; an optimized model yielded a median (interquartile range) C-index of 0.76 (0.66-0.81; p = 0.01) in prognostication of locoregional progression, using combined PET/CT radiomic features from primary tumors. Radiomics-based risk stratification reliably identified patients at risk for locoregional progression within 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year follow-up intervals, with log-rank p-values of p = 0.003, p = 0.001, p = 0.02, p = 0.006 in Kaplan-Meier analysis, respectively. Our results suggest PET/CT radiomic biomarkers can predict post-radiotherapy locoregional progression in HPV-associated OPSCC. Pending validation in large, independent cohorts, such objective biomarkers may improve patient selection for treatment de-intensification trials in this prognostically favorable OPSCC entity, and eventually facilitate personalized therapy.