The Risk Distribution of COVID-19 in Indonesia: A Spatial Analysis

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia started with 2 cases on March 2, 2020, and as of May 11, a total of 14 265 people were infected. The government through Task Force for COVID-19 Rapid Response informs the progress of COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia, but no one has provided a picture of the risk distribution in all provinces in Indonesia. This research is intended to identify high-risk provinces based on risk factors in each province and to find COVID-19 hotspots. This is an ecological study that used aggregate data. We used a map to present the risk distribution in Indonesia, and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) to define the hotspot area of COVID-19 in Indonesia. There are 6 provinces identified as high-risk areas of COVID-19 in Indonesia, and the hotspot provinces are Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java, East Java, and Central Java.