Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures

Abstract

A number of thematic scenarios have been developed for envisioning sustainable futures in order to support strategic decision-making for government and industry. However, methodologies for designing scenarios have generally been under-theorized. For a better understanding and communication among stakeholders involved, this paper aims to propose the concept of computer-aided scenario design whose key characteristic is to provide a graphical representation of scenarios. That is, the paper proposes a method for representing the logical structure of a scenario by drawing the idea of graph theory. Based on this representation method, the paper dynamically connects a scenario with its associated simulators for undertaking what-if analysis in a quantitative manner. In an illustrative case study, the proposed method is applied to an extant scenario for hybrid electric vehicle diffusion. The results show that the method clarified the logical structure of the scenario and the rationales for deriving the scenario's conclusions. It was also demonstrated that the method enabled to create scenario variants when the original assumptions were changed. The proposed method would facilitate the iterative process of scenario design, thereby encouraging scientific dialog between researchers and stakeholders.