Adaptability and stability evaluation of maize hybrids using Bayesian segmented regression models

Abstract

The occurrence of genotype by environment interaction (G x E), which is defined as the differential response of genotypes to environmental variation, is frequently reported in maize cultures, making it challenging to recommend cultivars. Methods allowing to study the potential nonlinear pattern of genotype responses to environmental variation allied to prior beliefs on unknown parameters are interesting to evaluate the phenotypic adaptability and stability of genotypes. In this context, the present study aimed to assess the adaptability and stability of maize hybrids, by using the Bayesian segmented regression model, and evaluate the efficacy of using informative and minimally informative prior distributions for the selection of cultivars. Randomized complete-block design experiments were carried out to study the yield (kg/ha) of 25 maize hybrids, in 22 different environments, in Northeastern Brazil. The Bayesian segmented regression model fitted using informative prior distributions presented lower credibility intervals and Deviance Criterium of Information values, compared to those obtained by fitting using minimally informative distributions. Therefore, the model using informative prior distributions was considered for the adaptability and stability evaluation of maize genotypes. Once most northeastern farmers in Brazil have limited capital, the genotype P4285HX should be considered for planting, due to its high yield performance and adaptability to unfavorable environments.