Lifting the COVID-19 lockdown: different scenarios for France

Abstract

A mathematical model has been developed to study the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. To calibrate the model, data from the French Public Health Agency were examined. The spread of the epidemic greatly depends on lockdown measures (referred to in France as ‘confinement’). The aim of this paper is to predict the expected evolution of the epidemic based on the various possible scenarios for ending the lockdown. The spread of the disease, and its re-emergence, will be determined by these scenarios.