Rapid increase in summer surface ozone over the North China Plain during 2013–2019: a side effect of particulate matter reduction control?

Abstract

Abstract. While the elevated ambient levels of particulate matters with aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) are alleviated largely with the implementation of effective emission control measures, an opposite trend with a rapid increase has been seen in surface ozone (O3) in the North China Plain (NCP) region over the past several years. It is critical to determine the real culprit causing such a large increase in surface O3. In this study, 7-year surface observations and satellite retrieval data are analyzed to determine the long-term change in surface O3 as well as driving factors. Results indicate that anthropogenic emission control strategies and changes in aerosol concentrations as well as aerosol optical properties such as single-scattering albedo (SSA) are the most important factors driving such a large increase in surface O3. Numerical simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Master Mechanism (MM) model suggest that reduction of O3 precursor emissions and aerosol radiative effect accounted for 45 % and 23 % of the total change in surface O3 in summertime during 2013–2019, respectively. Planetary boundary layer (PBL) height with an increase of 0.21 km and surface air temperature with an increase of 2.1 ∘C contributed 18 % and 12 % to the total change in surface O3, respectively. The combined effect of these factors was responsible for the rest of the change. Decrease in SSA or strengthened absorption property of aerosols may offset the impact of aerosol optical depth (AOD) reduction on surface O3 substantially. While the MM model enables quantification of an individual factor's percentage contributions, it requires further refinement with aerosol chemistry included in the future investigation. The study indicates an important role of aerosol radiative effect in development of more effective emission control strategies on reduction of ambient levels of O3 as well as alleviation of national air quality standard exceedance events.