Shutdown: estimating the COVID-19 employment shock

Abstract

Between 14 and 26 per cent of Australian workers could be out of work as a direct result of the coronavirus shutdown, and the crisis will have an enduring impact on jobs and the economy for years to come. More than half of all workers in the hospitality industry could lose their livelihoods, as will many workers in retail, education, and the arts. Lower-income workers are twice as likely to be out of work as high-income earners. Younger Australians and women are also likely to be hit harder, because they are more likely to work in occupations and industries most affected by the shutdowns and spatial distancing measures imposed to slow the spread of the virus. If our estimates are even close to accurate, Australia is facing either the worst or one of the worst economic downturns in its history. And there could be a 'second wave' hit to the economy even after the immediate health threat eases.