Cost–effectiveness analysis of nivolumab in the second-line treatment for advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract

Background: To investigate the cost–effectiveness of nivolumab versus chemotherapy in the second-line treatment for advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Materials & methods: A Markov model reflecting the patients in the ATTRACTION-3 trial was established. Weibull survival model was employed to fit the Kaplan–Meier progression-free survival and overall survival probabilities of the nivolumab and chemotherapy strategy, respectively. Meanwhile, one-way and PSA were performed to test the uncertainty in the model. Results: Overall, the incremental effectiveness and cost of nivolumab versus chemotherapy were 0.107 quality-adjusted life-years and $14,627.90, resulting in an incremental cost–effectiveness ratio of $136,709.35/quality-adjusted life-year. Conclusion: Nivolumab is not a cost-effective treatment option compared with chemotherapy from the perspective of Chinese society.