Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic Spreading in India by an Epidemiological Model and Fractional Differential Operator

Abstract

Fractional differential mathematical model unfolding the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in India is presented and explored in this paper. The purpose of this study is to estimate the future outbreak of disease and potential control strategies using mathematical models in India as a whole country as well as in some of the states of the country. This model is calibrated based on reported cases of infections over the month of April 2020 in India. We have used iterative fractional complex transform method to find approximate solutions of the model having modified Riemann Liouville fractional differential operator. We have also carried out a comparative analysis between actual and estimated cumulative cases graphically, moreover, most sensitive parameters for basic reproduction number$(R_0)$ are computed and their effect on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic is investigated in detail.