Developing and validating evacuation models for fire safety engineering

Abstract

Evacuation models can adopt different approaches for the simulation of human behaviour in fire. This paper provides an overview of the most commonly used modelling methods to represent the evacuation process in a fire scenario. This is presented through a structure matching the engineering time-line model of evacuation. The evacuation model development process is discussed considering both data-driven empirical correlations as well as theory-based modelling approaches. Examples of alternative methods to the currently used evacuation modelling assumptions are also presented. These methods have been chosen to provide examples of cases in which revisions of well-established assumptions may be needed. This review mainly focuses on buildings and pedestrian evacuation scenarios. Nevertheless, many concepts presented are potentially applicable to traffic evacuation. Particular attention is given to the representation of the impact of smoke on the evacuation process, as this is an important issue for fire safety engineering. Finally, a discussion on existing methods and procedures for the verification and validation of evacuation models is presented and the need for their standardization is advocated.