A Novel Approach for Early Prediction of Drought

Abstract

Droughts are prolonged period of deficient rainfall leading to shortages of water in a region. Droughts are declared when the total rainfall received in a region is less than 50% of average rainfall. Hence, it is necessary to predict such a natural hazard which affects 42% of the country's land area and affects 300 million people in India. This system aims to provide an early prediction of drought in regions of Maharashtra and their preventive suggestions. The most affected regions of Maharashtra are Marathwada and Vidarbha. However, currently no such system exists for drought prediction in Maharashtra. This system aims to increase the accuracy of predictions. This study uses precipitation data to compute Standard precipitation index (SPI) which is a probability index used to ascertain abnormal wetness or dryness in a region. The system will predict whether drought will occur or not in a particular region and also aims to provide suggestions for drought management.