Modeling Simulation of COVID-19 in Indonesia based on Early Endemic Data

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has recently caused so much anxiety and speculation around the world. This phenomenon was mainly driven by the drastic increase in the number of infected people with the COVID-19 virus worldwide. Here we propose a simple model to predict the endemic in Indonesia. The model is based on the Richard’s Curve that represents a modified logistic equation. Based on the similar trends of initial data between Indonesia and South Korea, we use parameter values that are obtained through parameter estimation of the model to the data in South Korea. Further, we use a strict assumption that the implemented strategy in Indonesia is as effective as in South Korea. The results show that endemic will end in April 2020 with the total number of cases more than 8000.