Development of Pavement Deterioration Prediction Models for Low Volume Roads Using System Dynamics

Abstract

Pavements are the basic infrastructure required for the overall economic development of a country. A realistic prediction of pavement deterioration is mandatory for the effective maintenance of these pavements and, hence, for the proper functioning of a road network system. The pavement deterioration process and the causative factors contributing to the deterioration are dynamic in nature, i.e., it varies over time. System dynamics (SD) is an appropriate modeling approach that can capture the dynamics of pavement deterioration. The objective of this paper is to develop pavement deterioration prediction models for low-volume roads using system dynamics. Deterioration models were developed using the pavement condition data from 14 low volume roads in the state of Kerala in India using the software Powersim Studio version 10. The prediction models are validated by comparing with field values, and the goodness of the models is established statistically. The comparison reveals that system dynamics can be efficiently used for the development of pavement deterioration prediction models.