medRxiv · 2020 · 41 citations · 4 references
Veterinary MedicineInfectious Disease ControlInfectious DiseasesEpidemiologyInfectious Disease EpidemiologyPublic Health SurveillanceDisease ForecastingDisease SpreadEpidemic ForecastingInfectious Disease DynamicsInfectious Disease Risk FactorsTransmission DynamicsDisease Outbreak ForecastingEpidemic ModelsForecasting Disease DynamicsForecasting Disease OutbreaksForecasting Epidemic TrajectoriesForecasting Infectious Disease TransmissionInfectious Disease ModelsMathematical Modeling Of Epidemics
1 Abstract In this work, our team develops a differential equations model of COVID-19 epidemics. Our goal is to predict forward in time the future number of cases from early reported case data in regions throughout the world. Our model incorporates the following important elements of COVID-19 epidemics: (1) the number of asymptomatic infectious individuals (with very mild or no symptoms), (2) the number of symptomatic reported infectious individuals (with severe symptoms) and (3) the number of symptomatic unreported infectious individuals (with less severe symptoms). We apply our model to COVID-!9 epidemics in South Korea, Italy and Spain.
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A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period
Ziyan Liu, Pierre Magal, Ousmane Seydi et al. · Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020 · 259 citations · Full text
Veterinary Medicine, Infectious Disease Control, Infectious Diseases +15