Biology · 2020 · 248 citations · 6 references
Public HealthInfectious Disease ControlInfectious DiseasesCommunicable Disease ControlEpidemiologyInfectious Disease EpidemiologyDisease ControlDisease ForecastingEpidemic ForecastingInfectious Disease SurveillanceOutbreak ControlOutbreak ManagementDisease Outbreak ForecastingEpidemic PreparednessForecasting Disease DynamicsForecasting Disease IncidenceForecasting Disease OutbreaksForecasting Epidemic TrajectoriesPandemic ForecastingPopulation-based Disease Modeling
We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to 31 January 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model, we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying levels of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling COVID-19 epidemics.
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