Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and United Kingdom

Abstract

Abstract We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and United Kingdom. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size in each country. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.