MODIS-based land surface temperature for climate variability and change research: the tale of a typical semi-arid to arid environment

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study aims to (1) determine the seasonalities and spatial and temporal rates of change of MODIS-based daytime and nighttime land surface temperature (LST) for the last 19 years from 2000 to 2018 and (2) investigate whether these rates are induced by natural (represented by elevation) or anthropogenic (represented by population counts) forcing. The study area is Jordan – a typical Middle Eastern semi-arid to arid country. Time-series additive seasonal decomposition and simple linear regression produced the following results. (1) For both daytime and nighttime the highest LST values were observed in June while the lowest LST values were observed in December. (2) No significant linear rates of change of LST were noticed in daytime, while significant linear rates of increase of LST, which varied from 0.041°C/year to 0.119°C/year, were observed in nighttime in about one-third of the area of the country mainly in the western parts. (3) The significant linear rates of increase of nighttime LST increased significantly by 0.005°C/year for every 1,000 m increase in elevation and by 0.003°C/year for every 1,000 people increase in population counts. (4) Both natural and anthropogenic factors affected LST in nighttime; however, anthropogenic factors seemed to be more important than natural factors.