Why We Can No Longer Ignore Consecutive Disasters

TLDR

In recent decades, many countries have experienced consecutive disasters whose overlapping spatial and temporal impacts complicate recovery, and the risk is rising due to growing exposure, societal interconnectedness, and more frequent nontectonic hazards; these events differ markedly from isolated disasters, yet current risk models fail to capture their complex interactions. The paper aims to overview types, causes, and impacts of consecutive disasters and to advocate for more holistic, co‑designed risk management involving researchers, policymakers, first responders, and companies. The authors analyze global probabilistic occurrence of selected hazard types using existing empirical disaster databases.

Abstract

Abstract In recent decades, a striking number of countries have suffered from consecutive disasters: events whose impacts overlap both spatially and temporally, while recovery is still under way. The risk of consecutive disasters will increase due to growing exposure, the interconnectedness of human society, and the increased frequency and intensity of nontectonic hazard. This paper provides an overview of the different types of consecutive disasters, their causes, and impacts. The impacts can be distinctly different from disasters occurring in isolation (both spatially and temporally) from other disasters, noting that full isolation never occurs. We use existing empirical disaster databases to show the global probabilistic occurrence for selected hazard types. Current state‐of‐the art risk assessment models and their outputs do not allow for a thorough representation and analysis of consecutive disasters. This is mainly due to the many challenges that are introduced by addressing and combining hazards of different nature, and accounting for their interactions and dynamics. Disaster risk management needs to be more holistic and codesigned between researchers, policy makers, first responders, and companies.