Risk factors of recurrent pancreatitis after first acute pancreatitis attack: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

<b>Background and aims:</b> Few studies have been conducted in Asia on the recurrence of acute pancreatitis (AP). This study was designed to investigate characteristics of the disease to predict recurrence.<b>Methods:</b> We retrospectively analyzed 617 patients that experienced a first AP attack between January 2009 and December 2014. Based on reviews of clinical and follow-up data, we attempted to identify risk factors of recurrence using Cox regression analysis.<b>Results:</b> During a median follow-up of 3.2 years (range 3-72 months), 100(16.2%) of the 617 study subjects experienced one or more episodes of recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP). Of these 100 patients, 75(75%) experienced one relapse, 12(12%) two relapses, and 13(13%) three or more relapses. The etiologies of RAP were an alcohol (48%), gallstone (31%), idiopathic (14%), and others (7%). Univariate analysis showed that an age of <60 years, male gender, smoking, an alcohol-associated etiology, and a local complication at index admission were significant risk factors of RAP. Cox regression analysis showed that an age of <60 years (HR = 1.602, 95% CI: 1.029-2.493), male gender (HR = 1.927, 95% CI: 1.127-3.295), and the presence of a local complication (HR = 3.334, 95% CI: 2.211-5.026) were significant risk factors of RAP development.<b>Conclusion:</b> A local complication at index admission was found to be the strongest risk factor of RAP, and a male gender and an age of <60 years were significantly associated with RAP. Special attention and close follow-up should be afforded to patients with a local complication at index admission or male patients <60 years old.