Molecular Analyses of Fecal Bacteria and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Microbial Risk Assessment of a Drinking Water Source

Abstract

Safe water is a global concern, and methods to accurately monitor quality of water are vital. To assess the risks related to bacterial pathogen load in Lake Vomb that provides drinking water to the southern part of Sweden, this study combined molecular analyses of enterobacteria and bacterial pathogens in water using quantitiative real-time PCR with hydrodynamic modeling and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). A real-time PCR assay to detect enterobacteria was set up by primers targeting ssrA. Between February 2015 and May 2016, presence of ssrA gene copies as well as Campylobacter spp., Salmonella spp., and EHEC O157 DNA was analyzed by real-time PCR at several locations in the catchment of Lake Vomb and its tributaries Björkaån, Borstbäcken, and Torpsbäcken. Björkaån had the highest detected concentrations of the ssrA gene and, according to the results of hydrodynamic modeling, contributed most to the contamination of the water intake in the lake. None of the water samples were positive for genes encoding EHEC O157 and Campylobacter spp., while invA (Salmonella spp.) was present in 11 samples. The QMRA showed that the suggested acceptable risk level (daily probability of infection <2.7 × 10−7) is achieved with a 95% probability, if the Salmonella concentrations in the water intake are below 101 bacteria/100 mL. If a UV-disinfection step is installed, the Salmonella concentration at the water intake should not exceed 106 bacteria/100 mL.