An LSTM Model for Predicting Cross-Platform Bursts of Social Media Activity

Abstract

Burst analysis and prediction is a fundamental problem in social network analysis, since user activities have been shown to have an intrinsically bursty nature. Bursts may also be a signal of topics that are of growing real-world interest. Since bursts can be caused by exogenous phenomena and are indicative of burgeoning popularity, leveraging cross platform social media data may be valuable for predicting bursts within a single social media platform. A Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) model is proposed in order to capture the temporal dependencies and associations based upon activity information. The data used to test the model was collected from Twitter, Github, and Reddit. Our results show that the LSTM based model is able to leverage the complex cross-platform dynamics to predict bursts. In situations where information gathering from platforms of concern is not possible the learned model can provide a prediction for whether bursts on another platform can be expected.