An Epidemiological Model for First Stroke in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a young but ageing population, leading to concerns for planning for future growth in the number of strokes to provide necessary care. An understanding of the expected evolution of stroke incidence is therefore necessary to plan infrastructure changes. Our aim was to predict the number of first strokes occurring in Saudi Arabia over a 10-year period. METHODS: An epidemiological model was developed, using local mortality and population data to model changes in the population. Gender- and age-specific stroke rates were then applied to the population projections to estimate the number of first strokes occurring over a 10-year period. Stroke incidence data from a range of sources were applied to obtain a plausible range for the change in expected number of first strokes. RESULTS: The model predicted population growth of 12.8% over the 10-year period. Depending on the stroke incidence data applied, the number of first strokes occurring during this time was predicted to increase within the range 57%-67%. CONCLUSIONS: A growing and ageing population is expected to lead to a substantial increase in the number of first strokes occurring in Saudi Arabia in the coming decade. Our results suggest that stroke care services will need to be expanded to continue to ensure high quality care, and that strategies for stroke prevention will play an important role in reducing the overall burden. This type of analysis can be applied to other countries' stroke policy planning.