Simplified Pavement Performance Modeling with Only Two-Time Series Observations: A Case Study of Montreal Island

Abstract

The literature is rich in pavement deterioration modeling; however, classical frameworks for decay predication mostly rely on time series data for deterioration trends while several hidden factors could impact pavement lifespan. Hence, there is a critical need for transportation agencies to develop their own deterioration prediction for decision making instead of borrowing those models developed for other regions. The objective of this research is to illustrate a simple and fast approach for developing distress prediction models for road pavement with only two-time observations. The proposed platform makes agencies capable of developing and updating their own deterioration models with less data dependency through a simplified pavement performance modeling. In the studied case, shorter lifespan is estimated, which could be explained by the number of freeze-thaw cycles. Also, faster pavement condition index (PCI) decay for local segments with less traffic load in comparison to arterial ones is observed. It is suspected that environmental conditions become a critical factor with a larger contribution to pavement deterioration than traffic or type of pavement in this case study.