Diagnosing Bias in Modeled Soil Moisture/Runoff Coefficient Correlation Using the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture Product

Abstract

Abstract The physical parameterization of key processes in land surface models (LSMs) remains uncertain, and new techniques are required to evaluate LSMs accuracy over large spatial scales. Given the role of soil moisture in the partitioning of surface water fluxes (between infiltration, runoff, and evapotranspiration), surface soil moisture (SSM) estimates represent an important observational benchmark for such evaluations. Here, we apply SSM estimates from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive Level‐4 product (SMAP_L4) to diagnose bias in the correlation between SSM and surface runoff for multiple Noah‐Multiple Physics (Noah‐MP) LSM parameterization cases. Results demonstrate that Noah‐MP surface runoff parameterizations often underestimate the correlation between prestorm SSM and the event‐scale runoff coefficient (RC; defined as the ratio between event‐scale streamflow and precipitation volumes). This bias can be quantified against an observational benchmark calculated using streamflow observations and SMAP_L4 SSM and applied to explain a substantial fraction of the observed basin‐to‐basin (and case‐to‐case) variability in the skill of event‐scale RC estimates from Noah‐MP. Most notably, a low bias in LSM‐predicted SSM/RC correlation squanders RC information contained in prestorm SSM and reduces LSM RC estimation skill. Based on this concept, a novel case selection strategy for ungauged basins is introduced and demonstrated to successfully identify poorly performing Noah‐MP parameterization cases.